Travel Insurance Worth It?
Weigh travel insurance premium and deductible against expected medical and trip-cancellation losses.
Enter Your Values
Using shared profile · 3,500/mo · EUR — edit on Dashboard
Flights/hotels you would lose if you cancel
Results update automatically as you change values.
What-If Scenarios
Results update instantlyCost Breakdown
Expected Cost: Buy vs Skip
Click chart to expand
Skip Exposure Mix
Click chart to expand
Side-by-Side Comparison
Bars show relative size · ✓ marks the better option- Upfront Cost
- €85
- Expected Medical Loss
- €3.00
- Expected Cancel Loss
- €0
- Total Expected Cost
- €88
- Upfront Cost
- €0
- Expected Medical Loss
- €60
- Expected Cancel Loss
- €60
- Total Expected Cost
- €120
| Factor | Recommended Buy Insurance | Skip Insurance |
|---|---|---|
| Upfront Cost | €85 | €0 |
| Expected Medical Loss | €3.00 | €60 |
| Expected Cancel Loss | €0 | €60 |
| Total Expected Cost | €88 | €120 |
Expected loss without cover is €120 vs €88 if you buy. Buying has an expected value of €32 — favourable on pure EV.
Scenario Analysis
How the outcome shifts if your assumptions turn out better or worse than expected.
Optimistic assumptions
At stated inputs
Pessimistic assumptions
Compare Scenarios
Pin up to 3 and see them side by sideSet your inputs, then Pin current to save this scenario. Pin a few variations to compare their scores and outcomes here.
What Moves the Needle Most
How much each factor changes your Expected Value of Buying across its full range. Cancel Prob % has the biggest impact.
Focus your attention on Cancel Prob % — getting it right matters most. Factors lower down move the result less, so rough estimates there are fine.
Confidence & Assumptions
The outcome shifts meaningfully with your assumptions. Sensible, but revisit the key inputs.
Expected Value of Buying: €38 (worst) → €32 (expected) → €27 (best)
These are the estimates the result depends on. Adjust them (and the Advanced inputs) to match your real situation — the closer they are to reality, the more reliable your decision.
These estimates are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Actual results may vary based on factors not captured in this calculator.
How This Calculator Works
What this calculator does
This calculator estimates whether buying travel insurance is favourable on expected value by comparing premium plus residual risk against uncovered medical and cancellation losses.
How the calculation works
Expected loss if skipping = medical probability × claim + cancel probability × non-refundable amount. Expected cost if buying = premium + medical probability × deductible. The difference is the expected value of buying.
Formula
EV Skip = P(med)×Claim + P(cancel)×NonRefundable EV Buy = Premium + P(med)×Deductible Value of Buying = EV Skip − EV Buy
Example
3% × €2,000 medical + 4% × €1,500 cancel = €60 + €60 = €120 expected loss. Premium €85 + residual deductible risk may still look favourable — and catastrophe tails matter beyond EV.
How to Use This Calculator
- 1Enter your numbers
Fill in the inputs for Travel Insurance Worth It?. Defaults are realistic starting points — replace them with your actual figures.
- 2Understand the calculation
Expected loss if skipping = medical probability × claim + cancel probability × non-refundable amount. Expected cost if buying = premium + medical probability × deductible. The difference is the expected value of buying.
- 3Review results and scenarios
Check metrics, cost breakdown, comparison tables, and best / expected / worst scenarios. Use sliders to stress-test assumptions.
- 4Decide with the verdict
Read the decision engine recommendation and FAQ. Example: 3% × €2,000 medical + 4% × €1,500 cancel = €60 + €60 = €120 expected loss. Premium €85 + residual deductible risk may still look favourable — and catastrophe tails matter beyond EV.
Factors to Consider
- Policy exclusions (pre-existing, adventure sports)
- Credit-card travel benefits you already have
- Deductible / excess on claims
- Rare but huge hospital bills abroad
- Cancellation rules and “change of mind” gaps
Common Mistakes
- Buying the cheapest policy without reading exclusions
- Double-covering what a credit card already includes
- Ignoring deductible when comparing premiums
- Treating expected value as the only decision factor
Frequently Asked Questions
If EV says skip, should I skip?+
Not necessarily. Insurance is also for rare catastrophic medical bills that averages understate. Use EV for small risks; buy cover when a worst case would wipe you out.
What probability should I use?+
Leisure trips often see low single-digit medical claim rates; cancellation risk rises with kids, elderly relatives, or strict non-refundable bookings. Adjust to your situation.
This calculator provides estimates for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making important financial decisions.
Related Calculators
Explore other tools that might help with your decision.